No more tropical storms or hurricanes for two months: what’s going on?

Hurricane season begins on the first dayVerse June, but since then no new tropical storms or hurricanes have formed in the North Atlantic. Should this be considered a mistake by the weather forecasting organizations who have all announced an intense 2022 season?

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[EN VIDÉO] A look back at the extraordinary hurricane season of 2020
As forecasters predicted earlier this year, the 2020 North Atlantic hurricane season has been very active. As of November 30 – the official end of the season – no fewer than 30 tropical storms have been named. For only 12 for an average season. Hurricanes in particular at the end of the season were the most severe.

From June to November, the United States and the West Indies live under the threat of a مواجهة tornado destroyed on their shores. All forecasting organizations weather report They agreed months ago: The 2022 North Atlantic hurricane season is expected to be more severe from average. The NOAAThe US Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has forecast fourteen hurricanes, including seven hurricanes, including three major hurricanes.

However, the season Hurricane started at 1Verse Only three phenomena were recorded in June, which are minor tropical storms that did not reach the hurricane stage: Storm Alex on June 5-6, then Bonnie and Colin mid-June. For two months, no more tropical storms appeared in the North Atlantic.

Unsurprisingly quiet

Were the meteorologists wrong? ” So far, everything is going as planned.”And the The American Meteorological Society says. It may come as a surprise, but even though it’s been two and a half months since hurricane season started, we’re already a little above normal.

It usually takes three tropical storms to count until early August, while this year’s figure was reached in mid-June. On average, tornadoes don’t form until August 11th, and major hurricanes Usually not until early September when the water is warmer. The the heat Water is actually the main fuel for the formation of hurricanes. Over the past 30 years, four seasons have seen an astounding decrease in hurricane activity between July 3 and August 3: 1993, 1999, 2000 and 2009.

A recovery in activity is expected within two weeks

The steady calm of recent weeks is linked, among other things, toair Very dry in the middle layers of the atmosphere. This very dry air has two properties that prevent hurricanes from forming: sand particles from the coast and strong wind shear. Another climatic factor at play is the Madden-Julian Oscillation (OMJ), phenomenon Which manifests itself in certain years with more or less intensity and causes instability and violence fall along the equator. OMJ is not currently around, but could be waking up very actively by mid-August.

If confirmed, the American Meteorological Society warns that we will have to expect a recovery inHurricane Activity between the second and thirde August week, with hurricanes likely between late August and early September. Typhoon peak intensity usually occurs between the end of August and the beginning of October anyway.

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