“To avoid disaster, we must be fully aware of it.”

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[EN VIDÉO] Global warming: our planet is in an unknown region
In the initial version – which covers only the first nine months of 2021 – of its annual State of the Global Climate Report, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) confirms the global warming trend. For the first time, the elevation bar has been exceeded by 1°C compared to pre-industrial averages over the past 20-year period. But above all, the report highlights the many extreme weather events that occurred in 2021 and their consequences for the planet and for humanity. © World Meteorological Organization

What would happen to our world if temperatures rose by +1.5°C compared to the pre-industrial era? What if it finally rose by +2 degrees Celsius? For a few months, and a few years, many research works have looked into this question. Because anthropogenic warming values ​​are in line with the goals set by the Paris Climate Agreement. But what if we fail at that? Sufficiently reduce greenhouse gas emissions ? If temperatures increase by + 3 ° C? Or more? If we really have to face the worst case scenario?

subordinate University of Cambridge researchers (UK) Call today to ask your question very seriously. To begin to prepare for the possibility of serious harm to humanity, “climate end game”. Even if the chances of that happening are still relatively low at the moment.

According to the researchers, ” The Man-made global warming It can become disastrous. There are many reasons to believe this. » And not only if temperatures are actually going to rise too much. Also in the case – perhaps the most likely – where this warming must end up causing a chain of events. In other words, if it is a risk ” basic “We found ourselves in danger “combined”. “As is usually the case in the real world.”

Be aware of the real risks of taking action

Thus, the danger of global warming is not only the rise in temperatures and the directly related effects that have been well studied by scientists. It is also the risk of financial crises, armed conflicts, or epidemicsPartners, for example. And according to researchers at the University of Cambridge, all this remains ‘Seriously lack of exploration’.

To give an example, the researchers show that in a worst-case scenario, about 2 billion people could be forced to live below an average temperature of more than 29°C by 2070. This is already the case for 30 million people today. But tomorrow, these extreme temperatures could reach – and destabilize – more politically fragile regions, in particular. who are they nuclear power . Seven laboratories are confined to it Pathogens potentially dangerous. With the consequences we can imagine.

Overall, researchers call for work on the links between global warming and those they describe “Four Knights” subordinate “climate end game” Famine, malnutrition, extreme weather, conflict and vector-borne diseases. without forgetting “Side Threats” Such as the growth of inequalities and misinformation orcollapse democracy.

“The more we know about how our planet works, the more there is cause for concernsays Johann Rockström, Director Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (Germany). Our planet is complex and fragile at the same time. To avoid disaster, we must be fully aware of it.” So what the researchers hope is that, like the impact of nuclear winter work on disarmament, worst-case scenario studies will forcePublic workLet’s finally get down to the hard work.

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