Traders on the New York Stock Exchange. Financial markets were disrupted in the course of the war in Ukraine.
©Johannes Eisel / AFP
Between the war in Ukraine, disappointing digital promises and uncertainties associated with the energy transition, all investors are tempted to take shelter today. However, there are positive basics that do not lie.
For the past month, all wealth managers and wealth advisors have been at war to try“Look clearly at the financial markets. Because everyone did their math and“we s“seen that“Other than daily changes, the valuation of all markets in the world has decreased by 15-20% since the beginning“public.
This semester So it should end in red especially infog as for“near future.
All the investment professionals flood us with their advice. Many are interested in selling their own products (and c“makes sense) but they all have a great deal of PRèThe same data to support their analyzes and form their forecasts.
1èDr Certainly, the crisis we are going through is unlike any other crisis.The Covid crisis has been exceptional indeed, but it has destroyed quite a few“origins. It was mainly about health, and governments have done what they are doing in one form or another“It was necessary to put“systems protectionèproduction of my wealth. He succeeded because Drès that the virus s“turned off, economic growth has rebounded under the conditions of many n“She was not hoping. problemèmy friend“that it“Barely from Covid, the Western world fell into the war in Ukraine which“The economic impact is international, this time with unbearable human devastation, devastation“Large production assets, and above all advertising“Permanent opposition in the regimesèmy hostile ideologies. The“Imported inflation due to rising prices of fossil fuels, food and international transportation disrupts all systems.èmes whose productivity was largely dependent on the security of trade.
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The trust contract began again. between agents, actors, and states. Producers, consumers, savers, and investors. The result: everything changes, everything freezes and everything“I stopped.
2And Certainty, despite all these doubts, the Western world“He has no right to be pessimistic. heads“Companies that are the main engines of wealth production and growth are not, by definition. for heads“Business, crises are opportunities for positive change. Their profession depends on their ability to do so“adapts. Before Covid, we entered a period of amazing changes, like the world“knows that“one for each ifèa key. The digital revolution and climate restrictions have forced us to change our lives and“organization, and it was possible thanks to“People’s intelligence, experience and investments. What was possible before Covid is still more than that after Covid. And that“It is not the madness of war in Ukraine that can suppress the desire for progressès and freedom.
The factors of evolution remain relevant only we will have to accept change: energy,“Food, housing, transportation, etc.Everything changes. Everything but the basics of life.
3And contexts : it is obvious that“With new risks and changes“Imposing, investors exercise the greatest caution. But they don’t crack. Which may seem surprising. Markets have been strong since the beginningères Covid alerts in 2019. The problemèmy friend“It is from the beginning“In general, radars are more sloppy. They check and search.
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Technology, for example, is now“Theme“AnxietyStudies on its role as a locomotive. It must be said that technology was so surrounded and invested by investors that a lot of values were too too muchfood. Dowhere The rather violent corrections we saw, last week for example.
– Public policies thatèAlso try in the current context. The excessive public and social spending that can be justified in the face of the health crisis is no longer justified today“today. if it was“The West (rightly) wants to protect the functioning of market economies, especially freedom, it will have to put itself for some time in the situation of war economy, which means a war effort. The“Perceived inflation on fuel prices (gas and oil)“no thing“Other“One of the payment methods“war effort.
The vast majority of banks and large companies are resisting difficulties well. Certainly the European giants have been affected by the crisis, but publications of findings show that neither Covid with exorbitant restrictions in China in particular, nor sanctions against Russia, nor the war in Ukraine has shaken their model founded on innovation, digitalization and energy transformation, as well as the need to Reducing dependence on countries at risk. Market consensus expects a slowdown in growth linked to supply difficulties and inflation, but by no means stagnation.
French businessmen care more about the economic weather than the Germans or even the Italians…
– we are N“Did not attend to Taking into account the worst case scenario msame picture“They are sometimes considereds. The majority of players in the business world have experienced major economic crises.DiligentEtiquette of 1973/74 of the Kuwait Warmer or mêMy mortgage crisis. volatilitystar and“The Fear Index was, at the time, much more misleading than it is now.
stay Geopolitical risks, as far aswhere Nobody knows what’s going on in Vladimir Putin’s head, but there again, we tend to think earlier that wars in“Old like Napoleon, or terrible disasters like the secondèI World War Rès unlikely. Even if the nuclear dangers are still loomed by Russia. The“The West fears the dangers of the Internet more than the nuclear dangers.
This general caution explains the relative calm prevailing in safe havens. The“gold for example is trèThen certainly sought, but it is worth less than 2000 dollars for“ounce (ounce c“31 grams). So R remains a safe havenès are precious and if the war in Ukraine causes fi . shootingèvre, yellow metal no“Not inflamed. As for oil, we’re still around $100 a barrel. The world market has realized that the forces of recovery, associated with the emergence of renewable and natural energies and even the resumption of nuclear investments, can encourage producing countries to manage electricity prices.“an offer. in the Ministry of DefenseOffer price d“supply, the oil-producing countries know very well that“Investment in natural energy is discouraged. In 1973/74, a“The interest of the producing countries d“violently increasing their prices. Today, their focus is on smoothing over increases to extend life expectancy as an oil company.
As for the“Real estate, another safe haven, its price is more related to the imbalance between“Supply and demand for housing“for speculative necessities. Syrian PoundThe eco is definitely there, but there are also needs in square meters. Especially in major cities around the world. price“Real estate will always remain stable according to“CashèYou must re: location, location, location. against“It is the location of the commodity that controls its value.